Thanks to everyone for participating in New England Open Regionals. My predictions weren't great (read: I was wrong), so sorry about that. However, I'm convinced that by making Harvard and Dartmouth underdogs I actually helped them beat out Tufts and Williams.
The weather was partly crappy with a definite chance of showers throughout the weekend. Not much wind (which was nice), great layout conditions, and fields that held together well in wet conditions made for a better weekend than we anticipated.
First Round Saturday
Games in this round all went to seed. UVM was up 11-8(?) on UMass, only to have Zoo charge back and win 15-11. Wesleyan beat out MIT in a close one. UMaine-Farmington gave Brown a much harder game than anticipated. URI put up some points against Dartmouth. Brown-B didn't have to run naked.
Second Round Saturday
In the backdoor, MIT lost to Brown-B 17-15 (anyone catch this game?). UVM lost to Bowdoin in a close one. URI beats out Amherst, proves to me that they deserved a higher seed.
In the frontdoor, all games go to seed. Harvard quietly dispatches Wesleyan, Tufts obliterates UMass (and obliterated my prediction that UMass could win the game, but more on UMass later), Brown outlasts Williams, and Dartmouth keeps on rolling.
Third Round Saturday
In the backdoor, the 5-8 seeds (BC, Williams, UMass, and Wesleyan) hold their ground convincingly in some close games. In the 13th place bracket, UVM beats MIT 17-15, and Maine outlasts Amherst. Is this parity, poor seeding, or an opening up of the rotation for MIT and Amherst?
In the frontdoor, two exciting and close games. Tufts gets up on Harvard and stays up on Harvard 15-12. These teams are 1-1 thus far through the college series events, with Harvard +1 on point diff. Dartmouth gets into the groove against Brown and wins 15-10.
Fourth Round Saturday
In the backdoor, Williams comes back from a 5 or 6 point deficit (13-7 or so?) to take BC down. UMass keeps Wesleyan at bay 15-8.
In consolation, URI jumps to T9 from 15 by beating Brandeis 15-12. Bowdoin beats up Brown-B 15-7.
First Round Sunday
In the backdoor semis, Harvard outlasts Williams 15-10. UMass blows by Brown 15-10 in a testy game by two testy teams. Chill out guys, it's just the backdoor semis.
Second Round Sunday
In the backdoor finals, Harvard takes out UMass 15-11. A few disc spikes here and some foul calls there make this an interesting game, but UMass proves their worth as the 1 seed from WNE.
In the frontdoor finals, Dartmouth plays a solid game around Tufts. The Pain Train plays hard-nosed D, and even though they're not nearly as height-sufficient as Tufts, they put the throws just out of reach of the E-men. Dartmouth uses crisp lead passes to swing the disc over and over again, reminiscent of the first time I played against Amherst High School back in the day where they switched fields with ease. Play of the game is Socks on Dartmouth tipping a pass just out of reach of Tufts and into the arms of a charging Dartmouth player for a Callahan. This seemed to be the point of the game where Dartmouth just wasn't going to look back. Strangely enough, this was the second game in two years for Dartmouth where they got a Callahan in a game-to-go. This time, however, their opponents weren't able to shake it off and get back on the horse. At 14-11, Dartmouth sees a wide open receiver going opposite field, and one nicely-put forehand into the receivers hands just over the charging E-man defender sends Dartmouth to Nationals.
Third Round Sunday
Both Harvard and Tufts came into the game a bit tired. Neither team seemed near 100%, but I guess that was to be expected as Harvard had just dealt with pesky UMass and Tufts was given the runaround by Dartmouth. For the first 14 points, only the (slightly) downwind end zone was needed to score. Points, questionable foul calls, and some hard marks were traded for the entire first half until Harvard scored in the opposite end zone to take half 8-7. After that Tufts didn't seem to have the fire to win the game. Harvard seemed to have more legs under them, more crisp passing, and just a bit more edginess than Tufts, and took the second half 7-4 and the game 15-11.
Some thanks are in order:
Volunteers: you made my and Kendra's weekend run much more smoothly than we could've imagined. Thank you.
Observers: you guys are fantastic. Thanks for coming in from around the region (and from other regions) to observe.
BUDA: thank you so much for use of the trailer. I don't happen to have 16 10-gallon water jugs lying around my house (or my car) to use for tournaments.
Mass Youth Soccer: they've got a fantastic complex, fantastic fields, and fantastic assistants. Thanks for everything (including the golf carts), even though you probably won't see this post.
To the people who reported scores: did you do it all remotely? I sure as heck didn't report scores point by point even though I would've loved to. Thanks a bunch.
And some final thoughts:
-Dartmouth's always got a fantastic cheering section.
-One observer said Williams looked most like a club team. I agree, and I add Dartmouth to that list as well.
-UMass is a different team than they used to be. While they seem to have the largest range of performances from winning WNE to losing 15-3 to Tufts this weekend, they definitely had a fire that was tough to match. Additionally, it seems like they've put the past (a 1986 Nationals Championship) behind them, which I think is a good thing for the program. A few more wins against top teams and a few less spikes of the disc will get UMass to some games-to-go.
-In just one year, Tufts turned up their ultimate and their spirit. I heard from many of their opponents that they were fantastic to play against, and having watched them play for two tournaments in a row I believe it.
-South New England showed up for Regionals this year.
Final standings (* denotes Nationals qualifier):
1. Dartmouth*
2. Harvard*
3. Tufts
4. UMass
T5. Brown
T5. Williams
T7. BC
T7. Wesleyan
T9. Bowdoin
T9. URI
T11. Brandeis
T11. Brown-B
13. UMaine-Farmington
14. UVM
15. Amherst
16. MIT
Good luck to Pain Train and Red Line. Make New England and locomotive owners proud.
Brian Abend
NE Open RC
Monday, May 5, 2008
Friday, May 2, 2008
New England Open Regionals Predictions
Game by game, round by round. Scores being reported at: http://www.upa.org/scores/tourn.cgi?div=127&id=4416
Saturday: Round 1
Harvard v. Brown-B - Harvard clamps down early, Brown-B almost loses their skivvies. Harvard wins 15-1
MIT v. Wesleyan - Wesleyan has had an up and down year, but MIT doesn't fluctuate as much on the whole. Wesleyan surprised a sleepy Williams last year in the first round, but eventually lost that game 17-16. MIT won Metro Boston last year and made it to the backdoor final, losing to Williams and Dartmouth, but beating RWU, Conn College, Tufts, and Harvard. They made life interesting for Tufts in Metro Boston Sectionals semifinals, but couldn't play for third, losing to BC. A tough decision to make here, but I'm guessing this goes down to 17-16 or 16-14, and it will be in Wesleyan's favor.
UMass v. UVM - An intrasectional matchup from WNE. UMass doesn't get embarrassed by an excited Team Chill to take the game 15-7.
Bowdoin v. Tufts - Tufts roars into the day 15-3.
Brown v. UMaine-Farmington - Farmington's got a good bunch of guys, but Brown won't let up this early in the tournament. 15-2 Brown.
Brandeis v. Williams - Williams' loss in the front-door final of WNE Sectionals drops them from a potential 1-seed to the 6-seed, but it doesn't mean they're not a 1-seed. Or that they didn't make it to Nationals last year. Frogger can't cross Route 2, and Williams takes it 15-9.
BC v. Amherst - BC's athleticism, big wins over the year, and close games against Harvard, MIT, and Tufts gives them the edge over Amherst, 15-6.
URI v. Dartmouth - URI's gotten better over the past few years, but the Pain Train rolls 15-5.
Saturday: Round 2
Frontdoor Bracket
Harvard v. Wesleyan - Harvard can't lose on Saturday, and Wesleyan doesn't have the ability to pick themselves off the floor after the grueling win over MIT in the first round. 15-7 Harvard.
UMass v. Tufts - As good as Tufts is, this is a game that UMass can win. If UMass ends up winning here, I think they're 3:1 odds to make it to a front-door finals spot (which would mean a semifinal win over Harvard, too). But since those odds don't kick in til the 3rd round, Tufts wins a closer-than-it-should-be game 15-11.
Brown v. Williams - Williams is 2-0 against Brown this year. Williams will be 3-0 against Brown this year. 15-13 Williams.
BC v. Dartmouth - The Pain Train chugs along, determined to make it to the finals (which would mean beating Williams in Round 3). Dartmouth overcomes a taller, more athletic, but less experienced BC team 15-10.
Backdoor Bracket
Brown-B v. MIT - MIT wins 15-5. Brown-B can't seem to make a dent.
UVM v. Bowdoin - A tough game, but a trip to Vegas and a good Yale Cup showing propel UVM to the win, 15-12.
UMaine-Farmington v. Brandeis - UMaine makes a run, but Brandeis keeps their Backdoor hopes alive, 14-12.
Amherst v. URI - I'm going to pick URI on this one 15-9. Don't ask me why. Sorry Amherst.
Saturday: Round 3:
Frontdoor Bracket
Harvard v. Tufts - A rematch of Metro Boston Finals. Harvard is focused, but in the end I don't think they can hold it together for a second time against an older, more mature Tufts team. This is all assuming that this game doesn't turn into a call-fest, but even then I think Tufts will pull it out. Tufts gets the trip to the finals, 15-13.
Williams v. Dartmouth - This game is the Backdoor Game-To-Go preview. You have my word. Williams wins this one 15-10, but not because Dartmouth didn't bust their asses to avenge last year's devastating home-turf loss to WUFO in the backdoor game-to-go.
Backdoor Bracket
MIT v. BC - A nice sectionals rematch, and BC wins it again, this time by a larger, 15-8 margin.
UVM v. Brown - Brown can't be counted out. Ever. Sorry UVM. 15-5 Brown.
Brandeis v. UMass - Brandeis beat UMass at Yale Cup, but that was Yale Cup. Can't trust those results too much. UMass 15-10.
URI v. Wesleyan - Wesleyan wins 15-6 over a tired URI.
13th-16th Bracket
Brown-B v. Bowdoin - Bowdoin doesn't let up on Brown-B, either. 15-6 Bowdoin.
Amherst v. UMaine-Farmington - UMaine's a good team, but can't replicate results time and time again. Amherst 15-6.
Saturday: Round 4
Backdoor Bracket
Brown v. BC - Brown can't be stopped. 15-8 over BC.
UMass v. Wesleyan - Here's where UMass faltered last year. Here's where they'll falter again this year. Wesleyan 15-13 in a really close game.
9th Place
MIT v. UVM - MIT pulls this out 15-8.
Brandeis v. URI - URI comes close, but will settle for T11. Brandeis, 15-12.
13th Place
Bowdoin v. Amherst - Bowdoin wins this one 15-6
15th Place
Brown-B v. UMaine-Farmington - UMaine takes this 15-11.
Sunday: Round 1
Backdoor Semis
Brown v. Harvard - Harvard almost lets this one go early, as Brown will take half around 8-5. Harvard stays patient and keeps hope alive, going on a strong 7 or 8 point run to win 15-10.
Wesleyan v. Dartmouth - Dartmouth won't let this one get out of hand. Pain Train rolls 15-8.
Sunday: Round 2
Frontdoor Finals
Tufts v. Williams - This game could definitely go either way, and I think Williams will keep things interesting like they did last year against Brown (while they didn't win, they did impress some folks), but Tufts is persistent, and their hard work during the season pays off. Tufts rushes back to campus to book the tickets to Natties with a score of 15-12.
Backdoor Finals
Harvard v. Dartmouth - Harvard is determined. Dartmouth is determined. Not sure who is actually more determined, but I think Dartmouth has fewer injuries and a bit more grit than Harvard, and they didn't have to play Brown in the semis. Dartmouth wins 15-11.
Backdoor Game-To-Go
Williams v. Dartmouth - This prediction is a tough one, as I have a soft spot in my heart for both of these teams. It was painful last year to see Dartmouth go home, but I wouldn't have rather seen any other team grab the second spot. This year is a closer game, and will be 16-14. Sorry Pain Train, but WUFO gets the second bid.
Predicted Final Standings:
1. Tufts
2. Williams
3. Dartmouth
4. Harvard
T5. Brown
T5. Wesleyan
T7. UMass
T7. BC
T9. MIT
T9. Brandeis
T11. UVM
T11. URI
13. Bowdoin
14. Amherst
15. UMaine-Farmington
16. Brown-B
Brian Abend
NE Open RC
Saturday: Round 1
Harvard v. Brown-B - Harvard clamps down early, Brown-B almost loses their skivvies. Harvard wins 15-1
MIT v. Wesleyan - Wesleyan has had an up and down year, but MIT doesn't fluctuate as much on the whole. Wesleyan surprised a sleepy Williams last year in the first round, but eventually lost that game 17-16. MIT won Metro Boston last year and made it to the backdoor final, losing to Williams and Dartmouth, but beating RWU, Conn College, Tufts, and Harvard. They made life interesting for Tufts in Metro Boston Sectionals semifinals, but couldn't play for third, losing to BC. A tough decision to make here, but I'm guessing this goes down to 17-16 or 16-14, and it will be in Wesleyan's favor.
UMass v. UVM - An intrasectional matchup from WNE. UMass doesn't get embarrassed by an excited Team Chill to take the game 15-7.
Bowdoin v. Tufts - Tufts roars into the day 15-3.
Brown v. UMaine-Farmington - Farmington's got a good bunch of guys, but Brown won't let up this early in the tournament. 15-2 Brown.
Brandeis v. Williams - Williams' loss in the front-door final of WNE Sectionals drops them from a potential 1-seed to the 6-seed, but it doesn't mean they're not a 1-seed. Or that they didn't make it to Nationals last year. Frogger can't cross Route 2, and Williams takes it 15-9.
BC v. Amherst - BC's athleticism, big wins over the year, and close games against Harvard, MIT, and Tufts gives them the edge over Amherst, 15-6.
URI v. Dartmouth - URI's gotten better over the past few years, but the Pain Train rolls 15-5.
Saturday: Round 2
Frontdoor Bracket
Harvard v. Wesleyan - Harvard can't lose on Saturday, and Wesleyan doesn't have the ability to pick themselves off the floor after the grueling win over MIT in the first round. 15-7 Harvard.
UMass v. Tufts - As good as Tufts is, this is a game that UMass can win. If UMass ends up winning here, I think they're 3:1 odds to make it to a front-door finals spot (which would mean a semifinal win over Harvard, too). But since those odds don't kick in til the 3rd round, Tufts wins a closer-than-it-should-be game 15-11.
Brown v. Williams - Williams is 2-0 against Brown this year. Williams will be 3-0 against Brown this year. 15-13 Williams.
BC v. Dartmouth - The Pain Train chugs along, determined to make it to the finals (which would mean beating Williams in Round 3). Dartmouth overcomes a taller, more athletic, but less experienced BC team 15-10.
Backdoor Bracket
Brown-B v. MIT - MIT wins 15-5. Brown-B can't seem to make a dent.
UVM v. Bowdoin - A tough game, but a trip to Vegas and a good Yale Cup showing propel UVM to the win, 15-12.
UMaine-Farmington v. Brandeis - UMaine makes a run, but Brandeis keeps their Backdoor hopes alive, 14-12.
Amherst v. URI - I'm going to pick URI on this one 15-9. Don't ask me why. Sorry Amherst.
Saturday: Round 3:
Frontdoor Bracket
Harvard v. Tufts - A rematch of Metro Boston Finals. Harvard is focused, but in the end I don't think they can hold it together for a second time against an older, more mature Tufts team. This is all assuming that this game doesn't turn into a call-fest, but even then I think Tufts will pull it out. Tufts gets the trip to the finals, 15-13.
Williams v. Dartmouth - This game is the Backdoor Game-To-Go preview. You have my word. Williams wins this one 15-10, but not because Dartmouth didn't bust their asses to avenge last year's devastating home-turf loss to WUFO in the backdoor game-to-go.
Backdoor Bracket
MIT v. BC - A nice sectionals rematch, and BC wins it again, this time by a larger, 15-8 margin.
UVM v. Brown - Brown can't be counted out. Ever. Sorry UVM. 15-5 Brown.
Brandeis v. UMass - Brandeis beat UMass at Yale Cup, but that was Yale Cup. Can't trust those results too much. UMass 15-10.
URI v. Wesleyan - Wesleyan wins 15-6 over a tired URI.
13th-16th Bracket
Brown-B v. Bowdoin - Bowdoin doesn't let up on Brown-B, either. 15-6 Bowdoin.
Amherst v. UMaine-Farmington - UMaine's a good team, but can't replicate results time and time again. Amherst 15-6.
Saturday: Round 4
Backdoor Bracket
Brown v. BC - Brown can't be stopped. 15-8 over BC.
UMass v. Wesleyan - Here's where UMass faltered last year. Here's where they'll falter again this year. Wesleyan 15-13 in a really close game.
9th Place
MIT v. UVM - MIT pulls this out 15-8.
Brandeis v. URI - URI comes close, but will settle for T11. Brandeis, 15-12.
13th Place
Bowdoin v. Amherst - Bowdoin wins this one 15-6
15th Place
Brown-B v. UMaine-Farmington - UMaine takes this 15-11.
Sunday: Round 1
Backdoor Semis
Brown v. Harvard - Harvard almost lets this one go early, as Brown will take half around 8-5. Harvard stays patient and keeps hope alive, going on a strong 7 or 8 point run to win 15-10.
Wesleyan v. Dartmouth - Dartmouth won't let this one get out of hand. Pain Train rolls 15-8.
Sunday: Round 2
Frontdoor Finals
Tufts v. Williams - This game could definitely go either way, and I think Williams will keep things interesting like they did last year against Brown (while they didn't win, they did impress some folks), but Tufts is persistent, and their hard work during the season pays off. Tufts rushes back to campus to book the tickets to Natties with a score of 15-12.
Backdoor Finals
Harvard v. Dartmouth - Harvard is determined. Dartmouth is determined. Not sure who is actually more determined, but I think Dartmouth has fewer injuries and a bit more grit than Harvard, and they didn't have to play Brown in the semis. Dartmouth wins 15-11.
Backdoor Game-To-Go
Williams v. Dartmouth - This prediction is a tough one, as I have a soft spot in my heart for both of these teams. It was painful last year to see Dartmouth go home, but I wouldn't have rather seen any other team grab the second spot. This year is a closer game, and will be 16-14. Sorry Pain Train, but WUFO gets the second bid.
Predicted Final Standings:
1. Tufts
2. Williams
3. Dartmouth
4. Harvard
T5. Brown
T5. Wesleyan
T7. UMass
T7. BC
T9. MIT
T9. Brandeis
T11. UVM
T11. URI
13. Bowdoin
14. Amherst
15. UMaine-Farmington
16. Brown-B
Brian Abend
NE Open RC
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